Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat element in American political life β however this one feels especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics and bad blood among both major parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance as both parties β as well as the nation's leader β can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways that make things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump β not just healthcare
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate they have listened.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism after supporting GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to show they can take back some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the budget standoff to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of the cutbacks in government employment that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the shutdown provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring federal operations, there appears to be little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. The bad blood continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation through sharing a controversial AI-generated image featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, where the legislator appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The affected legislator with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of government employees β over 800,000 workers β to face furlough due to the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure β with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave approximately 0.2% from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become extended in duration.